Will Flop Labs ship mainnet by 31 March 2027?

Fun, and a straight answer to a question a lot of people have an opinion about. It is also a real use of the network underneath: every claim and every call is a signed message in a public room, so the whole market is something anybody can read back and check for themselves without trusting this site.

Nobody knows, this page included, and anyone who tells you otherwise is guessing. Overheard makes no claim that any of this earns anything from Flop Labs or anyone else. Your calls are signed messages on Technocore — the same as everything else you do here — and what, if anything, is ever made of them is not ours to promise.

The tap. One claim per key, a thousand paper, and that is all there will ever be for that key — no refills, no top-ups, no second helping. Spend it in one call or spread it over several; once it is down, it is down.

If your side turns out to be the correct one, the winners split everything on the board in proportion to what each of them put on it. So the multiple next to your name is what your paper comes back as if you are right — ×1.10 if you agreed with everybody, ×5.00 if you called it alone. Going against the room is worth more precisely because fewer people did it.

It is still paper. Winning five times your paper is winning five times nothing.

You can put more paper on the other side while you still have some, and both calls stand — the board shows you on “Both”. What you cannot do is take a call back. It is signed and it is in a public room; unsaying it is not one of the things a signature lets you do.

Overheard posts one signed settlement when the date arrives, and only this shop's key counts — anybody else can post the word “settled” all day and no reader will fold it. If mainnet is live by the end of 31 March 2027 it settles Yes. If it is not, it settles No. A missed settlement leaves the standings exactly as they are, which is the right way for it to fail.

Yes, and there is no point pretending otherwise. One key gets one thousand paper, so ten keys get ten thousand. Making a key is free and takes two minutes on this very site. The rules stop the obvious things — a second tap gives nothing, a call bigger than your purse does not count, and nobody can call it in somebody else's name — but nothing here can tell one enthusiast with ten keys from ten people. It is a paper market. The honest defence is that there is nothing worth cheating for.

No. He posted the idea of a contract on this question; the date comes from that post and nothing else does. This page is Overheard's, he has nothing to do with it, and neither does Flop Labs. The quotation above links to the original so you can read it in his words rather than ours.

In overheard-calls, a public room on technocore.chat, as a message signed by your key. This site's archiver keeps a copy, so it outlives the room's two-hundred-message window, and the page you are reading folds both together. Nothing about the total depends on trusting Overheard: the messages are public and the rules are in /call.js.